The Indian financial system is driven more by the domestic factors and "Fed rate cut is one of the triggers to review rates ", said Union Bank Bank of India chairman M V Nair.
Equity investors will track the trading activity of foreign investors, global trends and ongoing earnings results for further cues, and benchmark indices may continue to witness consolidation in a holiday-shortened week amid the monthly derivatives expiry, analysts said. Markets fell sharply last week amid massive foreign capital outflows and dismal Q2 earnings so far. Weakness in the markets might continue in the near term amid cautiousness among investors ahead of the US presidential election early next month, an expert said.
Reserve Bank of India Governor Raghuram Rajan took charge of India's central bank when the rupee seemed to be in a tailspin while the country was facing runaway inflation.
Among the Sensex firms, IndusInd Bank, Tata Steel, Tata Motors, Sun Pharma, Infosys, Mahindra & Mahindra, Infosys, NTPC, Bharti Airtel, HCL Technologies and Axis Bank were the biggest gainers. Tech Mahindra and Bajaj Finance were the laggards.
'The government is trying to kickstart the investment cycle in India and while the corporate investments are yet to gather momentum, there are early signs of the same.'
India's foreign exchange reserves are at an all-time high.
Indian economic growth hit a low of five per cent in the financial year ended March 31,2013 and further slowed in the first quarter of FY14.
IndusInd Bank was the top gainer in the Sensex pack, spurting over 8 per cent, followed by Axis Bank, ICIC Bank, Sun Pharma, SBI and Kotak Bank.
The fall in reserves was due to a sharp fall in foreign currency assets.
The new Guv needs to focus on structural inflation problems.
The rupee had ended lower by 19 paise at 56.15 against the dollar on wednesday as importers bought dollars in late trade.
The comment was in response to a June 19 Reuters story citing sources with knowledge of the matter as saying that India planned to clear some oil payments to Iran through the United Arab Emirates central bank.
The US Fed interest rate decision, domestic inflation data and global trends would be key driving factors in dictating movement in the market this week, as the Lok Sabha elections outcome and the RBI policy decision are behind us, analysts said. The past week was a roller-coaster ride for investors as markets swung sharply in both directions before closing with strong gains.
After trading hours, the government said the June-quarter current account deficit widened to $21.8 billion from $18.1 billion in the previous quarter.
He takes over at Mint Road at a time when the governor's job is even less easy than it is normally.
Sensex witnessed the biggest single day gain since May 2009 in absolute terms.
As the results season kicks in, the quarterly earnings numbers of several blue-chip firms -- such as Infosys and Reliance Industries -- along with global trends and trading activity of foreign investors, will determine equity market movement in the holiday-shortened week ahead, according to analysts. The domestic WPI inflation data for June -- scheduled to be announced on Monday -- will also influence trading sentiments, traders said. Markets will remain closed on Wednesday for Muharram.
What the reserves offer for now is improved import coverage of about 13 months, almost double the 2013 level of less than seven months. And, ammunition to arrest a rapid rupee slide, says Anup Roy.
Among the Sensex firms, HDFC Bank emerged as the biggest loser, falling 4 per cent. JSW Steel, Reliance Industries, UltraTech Cement, Maruti, Tata Steel, Wipro, Tech Mahindra, Bharti Airtel and Larsen & Toubro were the other major laggards. Power Grid, Asian Paints, Sun Pharma, Axis Bank, NTPC, ITC and Infosys were among the gainers.
All eyes are on new Reserve Bank Governor Raghuram Rajan who will come out with his maiden monetary policy review on Friday amid conflicting demands for rate cut and an urgent need to contain inflation which soared to 6-month high of 6.1 per cent in August.
In the backdrop of an over four-decade high inflation, the US Federal Open Market Committee has raised its key policy interest rate by 75 basis points to 2.25-2.50 per cent, anticipating that the increase in the interest rates will be "appropriate". Hiking interest rates typically cool demand in the economy, thereby putting a brake on the inflation rate. The US Federal Reserve in its June meeting too raised the interest rate by 75 basis points, which was the steepest hike since 1994.
The Indian rupee, which has depreciated 1.1 per cent so far in August, is expected to decline further on the back of a strengthening US dollar and a weakening Chinese yuan, according to a Business Standard poll of analysts. The Indian rupee hit an all-time low recently, closing at 83.15 per dollar. Five of the 10 respondents said the Indian currency might touch 83.5 per dollar in August itself, while others said the worst could be over.
Invest with a 5 to 7 year horizon so that you are able to ride out price volatility and benefit from the long-term trends of demand and macroeconomic shifts.
India is better prepared to deal with any further US Fed tapering, but the country needs to remain vigilant to face eventualities, Reserve Bank Governor Raghuram Rajan said.
Indian government bonds, particularly those of shorter maturity, strengthened sharply on Monday, as the collapse of the California-based Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) prompted investors to rush to the safety of American debt, leading to a decline in US bond yields.
'One way of doing this could be offering credit guarantee to the banks, say 10 per cent, for fresh loans given to micro, small and medium enterprises,' observes Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
Commemorating 75 years of India's independence, SBI has launched a 75-day Utsav Deposit Scheme, offering 6.10 per cent for fixed deposits. Senior citizens will get an additional 0.50 per cent and the offer is on until October 30, SBI said.
Management commentary on demand environment, and forward guidance will be in focus when Indian IT services players declare their September quarter results for financial year 2024-25 (Q2FY25). The industry is exepected to have continued on the path of recovery in Q2, similar to the preceding quarter, rather than sprint towards growth. The top four firms likely grew between 0 per cent and 4 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y), according to consensus estimates.
'Our growth in banking, financial services, and insurance (BFSI) is a prime example.'
Indian stock markets are expected to be driven mostly by global factors this week amid a lack of local triggers and earnings season largely coming to an end, say analysts. Crude oil prices, rupee movement and US Federal Reserve meeting minutes to be released this week will also influence the market sentiment. "With the earnings season behind us, global cues would largely dictate the trend in the coming week," Ajit Mishra, SVP - technical research, Religare Broking Ltd, said.
Those who want to invest should consider their risk appetite. Youngsters may go for it as they have a longer horizon to recover from a setback.
A combination of factors, including heavy investments in US Treasury bonds and dollar sales at a healthy profit, facilitated the Indian central bank in transferring a record surplus of Rs 2.11 trillion to the government for 2023-24 (FY24). The RBI's dollar purchases increased in FY24, supported by robust capital inflows endorsing the economy's health.
A day after the RBI raised the benchmark lending rate by 35 basis points, Kotak Mahindra Bank Managing Director Uday Kotak on Thursday said the central bank may go for one more rate hike to bring inflation below its upper tolerance level of 6 per cent. Yesterday, the RBI indicated that it wants inflation to be within the band first and then move towards the target of 4 per cent, Kotak said at the CII Global Economic Policy Summit 2022. "My sense is that there could be one more rate hike and that may be the time for thinking about a pivot, but we got to watch very closely the data, and maybe around 6.5 per cent as it looks today, subject to what happens to the world, subject to what happens to oil, subject to what happens to many other things," he said.
Markets slipped into negative terrain in late noon deals weighed down by profit taking in bank shares.
Overseas markets are already hit by an acute dollar crunch, which is why major central banks, the US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England, had to infuse funds into the market. These lines of credit are over and above the stand-by credit, which is usually maintained by foreign banks with the Indian banks.
Among the Sensex firms, HDFC Bank, Bharti Airtel, Infosys, UltraTech Cement, Tata Steel, Wipro, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Reliance Industries, Tech Mahindra and JSW Steel were the major laggards. Power Grid, Titan, Mahindra & Mahindra and NTPC were among the gainers.
For the next two years the whole world, including India, is expected to reel under the effect of the current financial crisis. Here's how it will affect us in India.
Stock markets would take cues from the biggest event of the week -- the US Fed interest rate decision, besides tracking the trends in global markets and trading activity of foreign investors, analysts said. Last week, a heavy decline in smallcap, midcap firms, foreign fund outflows and elevated crude oil prices in the international market dented investors' sentiments. Experts said equity markets may remain volatile in the near-term amid a host of global central bank's monetary policy decisions lined up during the week.
Samvat 2071: Sensex drops most in 4 years
